Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Friday as it tracks north of the Caribbean and intensifies into a major Category 3 storm. Here’s the latest forecast.

Most long-term models predict Erin will curl away from Florida. Those projections often are unreliable more than a week out, and the hurricane center warned that doubt remains in the forecast. In the four- and five- day range, track forecasts have an average error of about 150 to 215 miles, forecasters said.