The first hurricane of the 2025 season is forecast to intensify into a Category 4 storm and turn north just before the U.S. east coast next week.

A southward shift in Erin’s track has led to an increase in risk for the northern Caribbean Islands, though a direct hit in the United States is unlikely.

The National Hurricane Center's prediction cone shows a westward trajectory, but doesn't paint a clear picture whether or not it's likely to impact the east coast of the United States. Spaghetti models, which represent a collection of predicted paths generated by multiple computer models, paint a more definitive picture as of Wednesday morning.